In less than one hour, the first statewide polls will close, and the counting will begin to determine the 44 President of the United States of America and the 111 Congress.
There is no one questioning the evident result of the Senatorial and Congressional races: the Democrats will increase its majority in both houses of Congress. The question will be if the Democrats can reach the threshold of 60 Senators in the Democratic caucus. There are currently 49 Democrats in the Congress, but Joe Liberman and Bernie Sanders caucus with the Democrats. Senate races in Alaska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Virginia are slightly tilting blue. The Senate races in North Carolina and Minnesota are pure tossups -- both have gotten particularly nasty in recent weeks. The Democrats also have a chance to win seats in Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi, as they would have 61 Senate seats in the best-case scenario. That would give Harry Reid the liberty to kick out McCain-backer Lieberman out of the Democratic caucus and still retain 60 seats in the Senate. It will take some luck for the Democrats to get to 60, but they will retain a big majority no matter what.
Everyone talks about a a 60-seat Senate for the Democrats "filibuster proof". While it is true 60 votes in the Senate is filibuster-proof, there are some socially conservative Democrats and some economically conservative Democrats. Therefore, Reid will need to try to bring some Republicans over on issues such as Iraq, the economy and healthcare in order to achieve a cloture vote to end a filibuster.
Now let's move on to the big race. Everybody will be watching this one, even people outside of the United States. This is the first time to sitting Senators are facing each other. This is the first time a Black man is the nominee of a major party. This is the first time both candidates were born outside of the continental United States -- John McCain in Panama Canal Zone and Barack Obama in Hawaii. Additionally, this is the second time a woman is running as the running mate of the presidential candidate. This is also the first time a Roman Catholic is running for vice-president.
There are two possibilities for America. One, John McCain wins. The next four years will look like the last eight, and it will be a disaster. Or two, Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States of America. That would be truly amazing. As I said, the entire world will have its eyes upon us today. Our standing in the world has gone down the drain these past eight years. This is America's chance to prove that George W. Bush was not the rule, he was the exception. This is America's chance to prove that we have progressed as a nation, that 40 years after Martin Luther King Jr. was shot to death, these United States of America would elect a man of African heritage to be president of its nation. This is not only Election Day, it is Redemption Day.
It would be a big change. A seismic change. But we have had this before. In 1779, George Washington left office after eight years, and passing the baton to John Adams. This marked the first time in recorded human history in which a non-relative was transferred the authority of the highest office of a country without death, rebellion or violence being the cause. That was a big change. I hope we are in store for another one, Nov. 4, 2008, Redemption Day.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
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