Sunday, November 30, 2008

One Month Later...

The first full month of the NBA season is virtually over, and the Miami Heat currently stands at 8-9. Miami has hovered around .500 for the entire month, but finds itself just out of the playoff picture if the season ended tonight.

First, a little perspective. The Heat won 15 games last season, and to be more than halfway towards last season's win total just one month in the season is a drastic improvement. Miami is playing better than the so-called experts thought them to be. Erik Spoelstra is a rookie coach and has a very young team. This team has also felt the absence of three-point specialist James Jones, a low-post presence and a veteran point guard.

With that being said, President Pat Riley made clear over the summer that anything less than a playoff run would be a disappointment for the Heat. This team cannot continue to trade wins and losses. Miami needs to string a few wins together, and it has only won two consecutive games once this season.

Things are looking up for the Heat, though. Dwyane Wade is playing as well as he has ever played. Mario Chalmers and Chris Quinn have proven to be a nice one-two punch at the point guard position. Daequan Cook has been the inconsistent shooter he was a year ago, but has improved his game in defense and rebounding this season. And Udonis Haslem has been adequate at the five, but has seemed liberated in his past two games at the four with a defensive load lifted off of his shoulders.

Will we see Spoelstra's lineup of Chalmers, Wade, Shawn Marion, Haslem and Joel Anthony in the future? I expect so. This lineup gives Miami a defensive presence in Anthony, who has proven his worth this season. But the biggest benefactor of the new move may be Michael Beasley, the second overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft.
Beasley has played two games off the bench thus far, one good game and one bad game. Therefore, it is difficult to get a gauge on how he will be as a reserve. In theory, this move looks to be very strong for the Miami Heat. Beasley will be playing alongside the second unit, with players like Quinn, Cook, Yahkouba Diawara and Jamaal Magloire. In other words, he will not be taking shots away from anyone. Moreover, he would be the go-to while Wade is on the bench, providing points where they would otherwise be scarce.

On the other hand, Beasley was arguably the most talented player in the Draft Class of '08. Spooelstra is looking for him to be more than a sixth man. Beasley may find himself as a starter later on this season, especially with Marion trade rumors heating up. The question for Spoelstra would then be whether Beasley is tailored for the small forward position. Is he quick enough to guard the likes of LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Tayshaun Prince and Rashard Lewis? It would be difficult for me to see Beasley guarding those threes, but I had difficulty seeing Antoine Walker guarding those players during Miami's championship run in 2006. Then-coach Riley used James Posey off the bench as a defensive stopper. Spoelstra, an heir to Riley, may try to emulate that with Beasley role-playing Walker and Jones role-playing Posey.

December should figure to be a pick-me-up month for the Heat. Spoelstra's team will rest 18 of the 31 days in the year's final month, and will only have two sets of back-to-backs. Miami plays Golden State (twice), Charlotte, Memphis, Milwaukee and Chicago in December, all of whom have identical or worse records than the Heat. With the possible return of Jones before we all have to buy a new calender, maybe Miami could find itself a few games above .500 going into 2009.

The Heat is still well in the playoff hunt, just a half-game behind New York for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. If Miami is able to stay healthy over the next few weeks, they could surprise a lot of teams. Marion may be traded, but I would not take anything with more than a grain of salt with any of these rumors until the trade is made official.

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