In Draft, Matrix Decides

With the Finals finally behind us, the NBA has officially entered the off-season. The 2008 NBA Draft is just six days away, and the Miami Heat have been the topic of a multitude of rumors. If so-called sources are correct, Pat Riley has no interest in Derrick Rose, the 6'3" point guard out of Memphis. Riles has seemingly become enamored with OJ Mayo's athleticism and shooting prowess. In addition, him and Dwyane Wade have been working out together in Chicago and becoming fast friends. Recently, however, sources indicate Miami may draft Michael Beasley, the 6'8" forward out of Kansas State.

Whatever decision the Heat makes, it will be decided by what Shawn Marion does. Marion must decide whether to opt out of his contract or stay with the Miami Heat by June 24. If Marion decides his future is not in Miami, the odds of selecting Beasley skyrocket. If not, it appears OJ Mayo will wear a Heat hat in less than a week. There are several other options, such as trading the pick to Memphis in exchange for Mike Miller and the fifth pick. For now, I find it difficult to envision Riles will trade the pick, simply because Chicago will apparently pick Derrick Rose. The Heat have recently fallen out of favor with Rose. Therefore, the Heat will select whom they prefer.

With Marion, he is more likely to decide to stay in Miami. There won't be any other place where he can make $17.2 million. I know that some players have taken pay-cuts to have a chance at a title, but no one in this League is going to play for free. Money is the deciding factor for a lot of people, and I expect him to get his best deal. His best deal is in Miami.

Therefore, the Miami Heat will probably select OJ Mayo with the second pick. Mayo is a great three-point shooter, possesses great athleticism, and plays good defense. He also is well-equipped to run a team. "OJ Mayo can be a true point," says NBA Champion Doc Rivers, a former point guard himself. "I watched him play a couple of years ago, and I thought he was off-the-charts phenomenal."

More broadly, this team needs more than just some point guard help. This team needs an overhaul. Remember, this team won 15 games last season. 15 games. It needs a lot of new faces. A player who I really like is Elton Brand. He can opt out of his contract this season, but is still undecided. Considering that he has never gotten far in the playoffs and could use a change of scenery, an opt out is certainly plausible.

Elton Brand is undersized to play the four, but is still one of the best rebounders in the League. He has been a 20 and 10 guy for several seasons, and has developed into a great defensive force down low. Signing him would be a colossal move that could have the same impact of the Kevin Garnett deal: becoming favorites to come out of the East.

A starting lineup of OJ Mayo, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Elton Brand, and, say, DeSagana Diop is viable among any team in the East. Reportedly, teams have contacted Udonis Haslem. With the possible acquisition of Brand, Haslem will probably be moved. A lot of teams could use a garbage player like UD. He could also bring in some talent. The bottom line is that the Heat need a seismic change, the level of the Boston Celtics last season. Just look where it got them, only a year later.