Let's start off with the news of the day. According to Shawn Marion's agent, Dan Fegan, the four-time All-Star will not opt out of his contract, which has one year remaining. It's hard to blame him. There aren't many players who will be paid $17.2 million this upcoming season. However, the Heat would have preferred for Marion to opt out, then sign a less expensive deal in the off-season. This deal could be a strong indication that the Matrix is not in Miami's future plans. He could even be dealt this off-season. Rumors have put Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, and Lamar Odom as possible trade partners with Marion.
Marion can undeniably be a vital trade asset for Miami. Only 10 players this season averaged a double-double in terms of points and rebounds this season. Marion was one of them. He has gained a good reputation around the League of a player that is athletic, a strong rebounder, and a good defensive player. A lot of teams could use a guy like that.
The truth is, Marion is a good player; the plan was for him and Wade to gel for at least one season to see where this duo could go. At a price-tag of $17.2 million, that is simply too much. He shouldn't be making more than Ray Allen. He shouldn't be making more than Elton Brand. He shouldn't be making more than Dwyane Wade.
Now on to the Draft. The Heat hold the second pick in the Draft, as well as the 52nd selection. I will be shocked if Chicago does not pick Derrick Rose as their guy. The impression out of the Bulls front office is that they have seen what Chris Paul and Deron Williams have done to their respective teams in a short amount of time. They see similarities in Rose.
Contrary to what some people are saying, I do not believe that Pat Riley is in the "now" mode, attempting to trade off a future superstar for a proven veteran. Riley knows that Wade can opt out of his contract in the 2010 summer. He needs as much cap space as he can get to re-sign Wade. He also needs to prove to Wade that Miami is the place for him to stay. A talented rookie coming at a cheap price is one of the best ways to give a superstar help without going deep in the wallet.
I do not see Miami trading their pick for maybe Mike Conley, Mike Miller, and, say, Kevin Love. I see them keeping their pick, whoever it may be. I would not be surprised if they did make a Draft-night trade, but would not expect them to trade for a player with a hefty price (Mike Miller). The Draft leaves them with Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo. Miami is reportedly interested in both of them. However, there can only be one. I have heard that the Heat like Mayo more than Beasley.
Miami may try to trade down a spot, if the Minnesota Timberwolves are willing to give up some value in return. I wouldn't be so sure to pencil in OJ Mayo wearing a T-Wolves hat in a couple of days. The Wolves have enough guards. They need someone down low to help with Al Jefferson. I would not be surprised if they select Brook Lopez.
The Sonics, at #4, have talked with Miami, and the word on the street is that Riley is intrigued. It is hard to envision the Sonics making a trade, especially if Mayo is on the board. They have a chance to build a team around Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and a point guard (take your pick: Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, or Russell Westbrook). That would put them in a great position to add more talent, with other lottery picks apparently on the way. In my mind, the Sonics don't need Beasley. They already have Durant and Green.
If the Heat were drafting simply on talent, Michael Beasley would be the evident choice. He's athletic, strong, quick, can shoot, has the arms of a seven-footer, and has a great work ethic. OJ Mayo gives Miami someone who can fill in as a point guard, a position in desperate need. When all is said and done, though, I expect David Stern to announce that Miami has selected Michael Beasley. Pat Riley will be talking to teams thereafter, discussing trade partners for Udonis Haslem and Shawn Marion. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they are both dealt by midnight on Draft Day. I wouldn't be surprised if Beasley isn't with the Heat by midnight, either.
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