Has Obama's Momentum Ended?

In a must-win situation last night, Hillary Clinton was able to pull out victories in delegate-rich states Texas and Ohio, and also won Rhode Island. Barack Obama's lone victory was in Vermont. Clearly, Clinton looks to be the clear winner, and to have stopped Obama's momentum. However, things may not look as they seem.

In Texas, two-thirds of the delegates are awarded in the primaries. Sen. Clinton was able to come up with a narrow victory in the Texas primary. However, the other one-third of the delegates are awarded according to the caucus in Texas, an area in which Obama has historically done better in. Although counting is not done in Texas, Obama retains a slim lead over Clinton in the caucus as of this moment. It is conceivable that Obama could come up with the majority of delegates in Texas rather than Clinton. Another thing to consider is that delegates are awarded according to districts. For example, if Obama won Cleveland in Ohio, a heavily-populated state, he could win a lot of delegates there. In New Hampshire, Clinton won the vote. Ironically, Obama was awarded one more delegate.

Delegates are not awarded until four or five days until after the primaries and/or caucuses are held, so it is feasible that Clinton could come out with a two-delegate difference, or vice versa. Nonetheless, it is certain that Obama will hold on to his substantial lead he had coming into the race.

The key question here is where has Obama's momentum gone. Hillary Clinton has stopped Obama's momentum. Even if it ends up Hillary shortening Obama's delegate lead of 100 or so to around 98, the headlines across this nation read "Clinton Wins Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island" with a subtitle saying "Obama Takes Vermont." And people buy newspapers for the headline, not the subtitle.

The next big Democratic primary is seven weeks away. The race shifts to Pennsylvania, where 158 delegates are up for grabs. Prior to the Pennsylvania primary, there are primaries held in Wyoming and Mississippi, but both do not hold as many delegates. Pennsylvania is a good state for Clinton on paper. However, seven weeks is plenty of time to catch up, and both campaigns have their Pennsylvania teams working tirelessly.

It will be interesting to see if the superdelegates will continue to peel away from the Clinton campaign. Numerous superdelegates have switched from Clinton to Obama, but Clinton still retains an advantage in the number of superdelegates. Now that Obama's 12-state winning streak has been snapped, the remaining superdelegates for Clinton could find themselves at a crossroads.

With Sen. John McCain the presumptive Republican nominee and having already shaken hands with Dubya, some people are skeptical whether this will hurt or harm the Democratic nominee, whether it be Obama or Clinton. In my opinion, it will make the Democratic nominee stronger going against a tough opponent in the general election. Democrats will also have a chance to make clear the differences that they and the Republicans have on a variety of issues. With Bush saying "no change" during his endorsement of McCain, the contrasts couldn't seemingly be more stark.

It will be absorbing to see how this unravels. Obama's work is cut out for him in Pennsylvania, but he will be heavily courting this area. After Obama's loss in New Hampshire, his campaign was able to get the right message and eventually go on a 12-state winning streak. It remains to be seen if Obama's camp can rebound from another relatively disappointing night.