Will Marion Move?

This is not the ideal time to run an NBA team. Not only is attendance down because of the economic recession, it already looks like the Boston Celtics, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers are pulling away from the rest of the League. Of course, anything can happen in the final five months of the season. But it should not be a surprise that New Orleans and Phoenix -- two teams that would like to compete with the Lakers in the West -- made deals Wednesday.

This brings us to the possibility that Heat President Pat Riley may trade Shawn Marion. Marion trade rumors were heard ever since Marion did not sign a contract extension with Miami last summer. The four-time NBA All-Star has put up mediocre numbers of 12.7 points and 9.2 rebounds this season compared to what we have seen out of Marion. As I said in my previous post, Miami is a jump-shooting team right now, and with that comes inconsistency. The Heat has won four of its last five games, but Marion has not proven he can step up when things are not falling down for Dwyane Wade.

Do not expect Riley to trade his highest-paid player anytime soon.Pat Riley will not trade Marion before James Jones comes back from his injury. Jones is expected to return in mid-January, which is still well before the trade deadline in February. The 6-foot-8 forward out of Miami University has never been a full-time starter in his five-year career. It would be quite a leap to give him the starting duty after coming off of a serious injury. But even if Jones plays well for Miami once he comes back, I anticipate Riley will let Marion ride out his $17. 2 million contract in order to sign a big-name free agent in 2009. Carlos Boozer's name has been thrown around the most when it comes to that for Miami.

Why will Riley keep Marion? While an expiring contract is appealing to certain General Managers, it is not to others. There is always the prospect of renting Marion for the rest of the 2008-09 season before he can sign take off to another team next season. And trading one or two key cogs will probably lead to some buyer's remorse. Moreover, Marion's statistics are down across the board, and most GMs would agree that he is not worth the $17.2 million he will get at the end of the season. Nonetheless, there could also be some sign-and-trade options for Riley this summer.

That is not to say that a trade involving Marion is very unlikely. This season has not been good for Mark Blount and Marcus Banks. Riley would love to get rid of either of the two overpaid players, and if trading them requires Marion to sweeten the pot, I do not see why Riley would not jump on the deal.

Miami is not looking to compete with Boston, L.A., or Cleveland. The Heat is in the Eastern Conference. All teams except Boston, Cleveland and Orlando are nothing special. Even the Detroit Pistons have fallen out of the top-tier teams in the East after its Allen Iverson trade left more questions than answers. If Erik Spoelstra can get his team to get the fourth seed -- which is still conceivable -- then attendance will steadily go up and the Heat will be a resurgent team. Pat Riley will then have salary cap flexibility after Marion's contract expires to get a top-tier post presence. That may be, simply, as good as it gets for Miami.