Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Second to One

The Miami Heat came up fortunate in the Draft Lottery last night. Chicago, with a 1.7% chance of obtaining the first pick, had the basketball gods on their side last night.

It is evident that the top two picks in the Draft are Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Rose, who hails from Chi-town, could be an intriguing match with the Bulls. There have been rumors circulating that Chicago is looking to deal Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich is Chicago's current starting point guard and is under contract for the next four seasons. Although Rose with the Bulls is certainly marketable, I can hardly see Chicago picking him up.

The Bulls are a very small team. Names in their roster include Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Larry Hughes, Andres Nocioni, and Tyrus Thomas. Among big men, the Bulls have Drew Gooden and Joakim Noah. Their only seven-footer is Aaron Gray, who averaged four points last season. Above all else, the Bulls need a post presence. Gooden and Noah are not post presences, despite their height. I would not be surprised to see Chicago trade the pick to go down to say, four, and pick up Brook Lopez or DeAndre Jordan.

If the Bulls draft either Rose or Michael Beasley, then they are looking to trade some of their pieces. Drafting Beasley would almost certainly wave goodbye to Tyrus Thomas or another forward. Chicago has struggled this year, but they are just one season removed from the Conference Semifinals. If they can just shore up their front-line, the ball is in their court for a winning season.

Pat Riley has compared the second pick to what Boston did last season, trading the fifth pick for Ray Allen. Riles also indicated that this pick has a lot of leverage. It does not take a brain surgeon to realize that Riles hinted at trading the pick. If you ask me, it looks like Riles is about to make a mistake. The Heat desperately need a point guard, and he's staring them right in the face. The Bulls may be leaning in the direction of Rose, but that is likely to change several times over the weeks.

Pat Riley's comparison to Boston is nonsense; and would not work with Miami anyway. Ray Allen has a lot of mileage on him. Beasley and Rose are 19. They've got decades of seasons left in their tank, barring an improbable event. The last thing this team needs are players who are in their mid-30's. And besides, I would not be bragging about how much leverage this pick has.

Should the Bulls select Beasley, the answer is Rose. Should the Bulls select Rose, I would not immediately pull the trigger on Beasley. Brook Lopez could fill their need of a post presence. They may select Beasley and trade him for another lottery pick. Packaging Udonis Haslem with something else for a second first-round pick could also be an option. A lot of teams could use a hard-nosed player like Haslem. Picking up a DJ Augustin could be an option for Miami.

Predicting a draft pick is very difficult because there are teams that could whip out a shocker or a trade at any point and time. And seeing as how a team with less than a two-percent chance to obtain the first pick got the first selection, conventional wisdom may not serve well this time around.

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